<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2301-1548</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Agrociencia (Uruguay)]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Agrociencia Uruguay]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2301-1548</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Facultad de Agronomía - Instituto Nacional de Investigación Agropecuaria]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2301-15482019000200160</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.31285/agro.23.90</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Evaluación de la vulnerabilidad de productores ganaderos de las Sierras del Este en diferentes escenarios]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Assessment of the Vulnerability of Cattle Producers of Sierras del Este in Different Scenarios]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Díaz]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[I]]></given-names>
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<contrib contrib-type="author">
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<surname><![CDATA[Achkar]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M]]></given-names>
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<contrib contrib-type="author">
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<surname><![CDATA[Diéguez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[F]]></given-names>
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<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Mazzeo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[N]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
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</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de la República Facultad de Ciencias Instituto de Ecología y Ciencias Ambientales]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Montevideo ]]></addr-line>
<country>Uruguay</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de la República Facultad de Agronomía Departamento de Sistemas Ambientales]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Uruguay</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de la República Facultad de Ciencias Departamento de Ecología y Gestión Ambiental]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Uruguay</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2019</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2019</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>23</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<fpage>160</fpage>
<lpage>173</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.edu.uy/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2301-15482019000200160&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.edu.uy/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2301-15482019000200160&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.edu.uy/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2301-15482019000200160&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen: Los productores ganaderos de las Sierras del Este son altamente vulnerables a la incidencia de forzantes externas, principalmente a los cambios en las precipitaciones que afectan la productividad del campo natural y la intensificación agraria que afecta el acceso a la tierra y a los suplementos alimenticios. La combinación de estas forzantes permite identificar seis escenarios con diferentes impactos sobre la actividad y los productores ganaderos. El objetivo de este trabajo fue analizar la incidencia de las principales forzantes sobre 35 productores ganaderos de las Sierras del Este, agrupados en seis grupos a partir de la similitud en sus capacidades para manejar la actividad ganadera, la capacidad socioeconómica, la capacidad de acceder a fuentes alternativas de alimentación para el ganado y de la flexibilidad comercial y financiera. Los principales resultados destacan que los productores más vulnerables en el escenario actual son en general los más vulnerables en todos los escenarios futuros considerados. Adicionalmente, se detectó un comportamiento no lineal entre los grupos de productores y sus valores de capacidad de respuesta, que fueron dependientes de cada contexto y pusieron en evidencia la necesidad de analizar la vulnerabilidad de los productores en función del escenario considerado. El abordaje propuesto, que puede ser implementado para diversos sistemas productivos y para diversas forzantes climáticas y económicas, resalta la importancia del trabajo con escenarios para el diseño y la implementación de políticas públicas.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Summary: Cattle producers in Sierras del Este are highly vulnerable to the incidence of external drivers, mainly to the changes in precipitation that affect the productivity of the natural grasslands, and the agrarian intensification, that affects access to land and food supplements. The combination of these drivers allows identifying six scenarios with different impacts on the activity and the cattle producers. The objective of this work was to analyze the incidence of the main drivers on 35 cattle producers of Sierras del Este, grouped in six groups based on the similarity in their capacities for cattle management, the socio-economic capacity, the capacity to access to alternative sources of food to cattle feeding, and the commercial and financial flexibility. The main results highlight that the most vulnerable cattle producers in the current scenario are in general the most vulnerable in all future scenarios considered. Additionally, a non-linear behaviour among the groups of producers and their response capacity values according to each scenario was detected, which highlights the need to analyze the vulnerability of producers according to the scenario considered. The proposed approach, which can be implemented for diverse production systems and for diverse climatic and economic drivers, highlights the importance of working with scenarios for the design and implementation of public policies.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[ganadería]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[escenarios]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[productividad primaria neta aérea]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[intensificación agraria]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[vulnerabilidad]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[sequía]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[livestock]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[scenarios]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[aboveground net primary productivity]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[agrarian intensification]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[vulnerability]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[drought]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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