Abstract

DE ARMAS, Gustavo. Weakening the Demographic Effect and Consolidation of a New Party System: Evidence for the 2009 Uruguayan Elections. Rev. Urug. Cienc. Polít. [online]. 2009, vol.18, n.1, pp.41-63. ISSN 1688-499X.

The Uruguayan party system experimented between the elections of 1984 and 2004 a gradual but also deep transformation. The new party system which emerged in 2004, constituted by two large –formal or informal– coalitions (a new two-party system), can be explained by long-term trends (the demographic change of the electorate) and electoral conjunctures. The decrease of the percentage of votes by the Frente Amplio between 2004 and 2009 can be explained by the weakening of the "demographic effect" and by the transfer of votes, relatively significant, from the left coalition towards the other parties. Despite those changes, the recent election would have consolidated the party system that emerged from the previous election, which seems to be the most probable one in the next years.

Keywords : Party System; Elections; Electoral Behavior; Frente Amplio.

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