Resumen

VERGER, Lorenzo; VIDAL, Bernabé; NAGY, Gustavo J.  y  BIDEGAIN, Mario. Relationship between climatic variables and human leptospirosis cases: Uruguay, 2010-2023. Veterinaria (Montev.) [online]. 2025, vol.61, n.224, e201.  Epub 01-Dic-2025. ISSN 0376-4362.  https://doi.org/10.29155/vet.61.224.3.

Leptospirosis is a globally distributed bacterial zoonosis. In Uruguay, it is endemic and primarily affects rural workers and some urban groups. This study aimed to analyze the relationship between climatic variables and human leptospirosis cases in Uruguay from 2010 to 2023. Climatic variables were correlated with monthly confirmed cases of leptospirosis at various lag periods. A negative binomial regression model was then fitted to model the monthly number of cases as a function of the significantly correlated variables. A total of 1218 confirmed cases were reported during the study period. Mean monthly temperature showed the highest positive correlation with cases in the following month (lag 1) nationwide. Accumulated precipitation was most strongly correlated with leptospirosis cases in lag 1 at the national level and in the southern region, while in the north, the strongest correlation was observed at lag 2. Months with above-average precipitation and flooding had significantly more cases than months with average or below-average rainfall. According to the model, each 1 °C increase in mean monthly temperature was associated with a 8.9 % increase in cases the following month, while each 10 mm increase in precipitation was associated with an 3.3 % increase. These findings highlight the need to strengthen prevention, surveillance, and diagnosis of leptospirosis in health centers, particularly after warm, rainy, or flood-prone months. This is especially relevant in the context of climate change, which is increasing average temperatures and the frequency of extreme weather events.

Palabras clave : Zoonoses; Temperature; Rainfall; Climate change.

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