Introduction:

a normal result in myocardial perfusion scintigraphy (gated-SPECT) has a high negative predictive value for severe coronary artery disease; there is a period of time in which patients remain with a low event rate (less than 1%). However, some evidence suggests that this guarantee period (PG) is not the same in all age groups.

Objectives:

to establish the period of time in which elderly patients (older than 70 years) maintain a rate of cardiac events below 1%.

Material and methods:

554 patients were studied through gated-SPECT, divided into two groups: Group 1: (n = 354) with normal gated-SPECT, and Group 2: (n = 200) with abnormal gated-SPECT. We define a normal gated-SPECT as that with a stress sum score (SSS) <4 and normal functional parameters. The mean follow-up was 30.6 months (range: 12-62 months), for the investigation of cardiovascular events (CE): cardiac death (CD) and nonfatal infarction (NFAMI), and combined events (CBE): CE + coronary angioplasty, myocardial revascularization surgery and implanted cardiodefibrillator (ICD). Pearson’s nonparametric test was used and the Χ2 statistic was calculated, with a value of p <0.05 for the rejection of the null hypothesis (CI: 95%).

Results:

the comparison between both groups shows differences for the appearance of CE: (p <0.0001), CD: (p <0.0001) and CBE: (p <0.0001). The CE rate in Group 1 for each year was 0.56, 0.59 and 0.50%, respectively, with a cumulative 3-year rate of 1.65%. The rate in Group 2 was 2.5, 1.58 and 3.84%, respectively (cumulative rate: 7.92%). The period in which Group 1 patients maintained a risk of CD below 1% was 18 months.

Conclusion:

the prognosis of elderly patients presenting a normal gated-SPECT result is very good, with a cardiac event rate of less than 1% for a period of 18 months.

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