Abstract

SANDOYA, EDGARDO et al. Predicción de eventos coronarios a nueve años mediante el score de Framingham en Uruguay. Rev.Urug.Cardiol. [online]. 2009, vol.24, n.1, pp.13-21. ISSN 0797-0048.

Background: Framingham risk score allows to estimate the 10 years risk of ischemic heart disease taking into account age, gender, cholesterol and blood pressure levels, and diabetes and smoking presence or not. This study was performed to evaluate the predictive capacity of that score in our country. Methods: between 1995 and 1998 an associate’s random sample with similar characteristics to Framingham study participants was selected. Its cardiovascular risk was estimated with the Framingham score and the development of coronary heart disease was investigated until 2007. The scores discrimination capacity was analyzed with the area under the ROC curve and its calibration with the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. Results: among 1.110 participants, average cardiovascular risk was estimated in 12,4% for men and 6,3% for women. At 9 years, coronary heart disease occurs in 12,1% of men and 3,3% in women. The score discrimination was 0,76 (95% CI 0,69 to 0,83) in men and 0,63 (95% CI 0,56 to 0,78) in women, and its calibration was 6.82, p=0.56 in men and 5,09, p=0,64 in women. Conclusions: the Framingham risk score is adequate to discriminate the risk of coronary heart disease risk among men, but it is not adequate to do it in the women of our country. Its calibration taking into account local prevalence of risk factors and events incidence could improve its predictive capacity.

Keywords : MYOCARDIAL ISCHEMIA; RISK FACTORS; COMPARATIVE STUDY; URUGUAY.

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