Introduction:

the vaccination program is a public health intervention aimed at controlling or eliminating vaccine-preventable diseases. The objective of the study was to estimate the evolution of the vaccine budget between 2007 and 2022 and the impact of potential improvements in Paraguay’s vaccination schedule.

Method:

the evolution of the vaccine budget was estimated considering the changes introduced between 2007 and 2022 and the impact of alternative schedules versus the current one. These alternatives include the addition of the quadrivalent influenza vaccine, the hexavalent vaccine for infants, the inclusion of the HPV vaccine for boys, and the ACYW meningococcal ACYW vaccine for adolescents. The analysis was conducted from the perspective of the Ministry of Health, with a time horizon of one year. The results of the alternatives are expressed as budget impact compared to the year 2022.

Results:

between 2007 and 2022, the number of biological products in the EPI increased from 11 to 18, and additional indications for some vaccines were incorporated. The budget is estimated to have increased from 3.8 to 29.9 million USD over the series. The alternatives would result in individual increases of 13%, 35%, 5%, and 10%. The combined increase reaches 62%.

Conclusions:

the increase in vaccine expenditure was eightfold between 2007 and 2022. The budget impact was estimated in different scenarios, interpreted as improvements compared to the current 2022 scenario, with the most demanding increase being 35%. The generated evidence can assist in the decision-making process regarding this public policy in Paraguay.

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